THE NEW SCHOOL

Initial thoughts on Super Tuesday …

Posted in Uncategorized by groffellison on February 6, 2008
On the Democratic side, it’s the type of night Sen. Obama needed to show that he is a national candidate.  He has to be pleased that he actually won states and absorbed delegates in every region of the country.  On the flip side, Sen. Clinton won the two biggest prizes: New York and California.  She won New York because it’s her “home state” – but, she still won by a smaller margin in her state than Obama did in his base of Illinois since African Americans in New York clearly bolted for Barack. The edge she got in California was due to overwhelming support from women (primarily White women) and Latinos.   However, one key electorate few are talking about is the Asian vote in California which may clearly broke for Clinton.
The issue for Obama is how he deals with the Latino vote in places like Texas. He has to find a way to solidify his Latino support in the Lone Star state. He did well in Colorado where Latinos are 20 percent of the population, so that could help boost his chances of better performance in the Southwest.   
Still trying to figure out exactly what happened to the Black vote in Tennessee. Shades of the Harold Ford fiasco where Black voters still couldn’t vote for Ford strong enough to carry him against the Republican candidate?  We don’t know, but it’s fairly compelling that the Obama camp couldn’t draw that much of a significant African American vote to outdo Clinton.  It could have also been that the state is so segregated along racial lines that it couldn’t go for the Black candidate.
There’s no way McCain and Huckabee campaigns didn’t work together in West Virginia – perhaps McCain and Huckabee didn’t know anything, but their campaigns in West Virginia sure did in an effort to block Romney.  There are clear indications that Huckabee played defense to McCain’s quaterbacking.   The problem with Huckabee is that all his wins are in the South, which marginalizes him as the “Southern” candidate – he’s through.  It’s probably between McCain and Romney if this goes beyond tonight, with Romney not getting much support from the Republican ranks or grassroots.” 

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